Conceptualizing Security Dilemma and Economic Impacts of the Russian-Ukraine War on the Central Asian Region
Keywords:
Security Dilemma, Conflict, Russian Insecurities, Economic Impact, Central AsiaAbstract
The interactions between the world's great powers impact the global level of stabilization. There are two possible conceptions: power balance and security dilemma. The end of big (world or cold) conflicts allows for a shift from one constellation to another. The purpose of this article is to understand and investigate the origins of the Ukraine issue. It contends that the Ukrainian issue is merely a symptom of a larger struggle between two great powers and also analyzes the impact on Central Asian countries as they are highly dependent on Russia in both economic and political terms, putting them in a vulnerable position when it comes to disruptions and economic turmoil. As a theoretical construct, the realist interpretation of the Security Dilemma was adopted, and swat analysis was performed using discursive research techniques to find out the economic impact on the Central Asian region.
References
Adam Entous and Greg Miller, (2017), “U.S. Intercepts Capture Senior Russian Official Celebrating Trump Win,” Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-intercepts-capture-senior-russian-officials-celebrating-trump-win/2017/01/05/d7099406-d355-11e6-9cb0-54ab630851e8_story.html.
Anayi, Lena, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, and Ivan Yotzov. (2022), The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Economic Uncertainty. Available online: https://voxeu.org/article/impact-war-ukraine-economic-uncertainty#:~{}: text=The%20war%20in%20Ukraine%20has%20raised%20uncertainty%20about%20future%20sales,2019%20average%20to%20 almost%20140%25 (accessed on 24 May 2022)
Asel Doolotkeldl, (2022), Russian Draft Dodgers Find a Mixed Reception in Central Asia, Carnegie Politika, retrieved online: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88202 accessed at 11-11-2022
Ash, Elliott, Sharun Mukand, and Dani Rodrik. (2021). Economic Interests, Worldviews, and Identities: Theory and Evidence on Ideational Politics. Working Paper 29474. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Atefa Bahr, (2022), The impact of Russian-Ukraine war on Central Asian economy, retrieved online: https://www.geopolitica.info/impact-russian-ukraine-war-on-central-asian-economy/, accessed at 27-11-2022.
BBC News. (2022). The Western Economy Is Slowing Down Because of Russia’s War with Ukraine. And This Is just the Beginning. Available online: https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-61275658 (accessed on 28 August 2022).
Berger, Eva, Sylwia Bialek, Niklas Garnadt, Veronika Grimm, Lars Other, Leonard Salzmann, Monika Schnitzer, Achim Truger, and Volker Wieland. (2022). A Potential Sudden Stop of Energy Imports from Russia: Effects on Energy Security and Economic Output in Germany and the EU. IMFS Working Paper Series, No. 166; Frankfurt a. M: Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
Bloomberg News. (2022). Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy Awaits Fateful EU Vote. 11:38 AM GMT+3Updated on June 19, 5:35 PM GMT+3. Harvest Alarm. June 19. Available online: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-19/ukraine-latest-nato-chiefand-uk-s-johnson-warn-of-long-war?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google (accessed on 25 June 2022).
Bermet Talant, (2022), The war in Ukraine is pushing Central Asia away from Russia, The Interpreter, retrieved online: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/war-ukraine-pushing-central-asia-away-russia, accessed on 22-10-2022
Dilip Ratha & Eung Ju Kim, “Russia- Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Remittance flows to Ukraine and Central Asia,” World Bank Blogs, https://blogs.worldbank.org/peoplemove/russia-ukraine-conflict-implications-remittance-flows-ukraine-and-central-asia
Farangis Najibullah, (2022), “Central Asia Takes Economic Hit From Russian War In Ukraine Sooner Than Expected,” Radio Free Europe, https://www.rferl.org/a/central-asia-migrants-ruble-impact/31730968.html
Gavin Helf, (2022), “With Friends Like these: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Hurts Central Asia,” The United States Institute of Peace, https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/02/friends-these-how-russias-invasion-ukraine-hurts-central-asia
Ibrahim Muradov, (2021).Introduction to International Peace and Conflict Studies (Dnipro: Dnipro University of Technology,), https://doi.org/10.1109/stc-csit.2018.8526665.
International Monetary Fund. (2022). How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World’s Regions. March 15. Available online: https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/ (accessed on 24 May 2022).
Indira Chand & Amy Stilwell, (2022), Russian Invasion of Ukraine Impedes Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery in Emerging Europe and Central Asia, The world Bank, retrieved online: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/04/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-impedes-post-pandemic-economic-recovery-in-emerging-europe-and-central-asia accessed on 10-11-2022
Institute for war and peace reporting, (2022), Ukraine: Impact of War on Central Asia,”. https://iwpr.net/global-voices/ukraine-impact-war-central-asia
Jardine, Bradely, (2022), “Russia’s War in Ukraine Spells Disaster for Neighboring Central Asia.”. https://time.com/6156524/russia-ukraine-central-asia-impact/
Joseph Choi, (2021), “Russia Keeping 80K Troops at Border amid NATO Exercise, US Officials Say,” The Hill, https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/551996-russiakeeping-80k-troops-at-border-amid-nato-exercise-us.
KPMG. (2022). Global Economic Outlook. The Global Outlook: Without Respite. KPMG April 2022. Available online: https: //home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2022/04/global-economic-outlook.html (accessed on 24 Sep, 2022)
Krugman, Paul. 2022. How the Putin shock might affect the world economy. The New Jork Times. March 8. Available online: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine-economy-sanctions.html (accessed on 25 Oct, 2022).
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, (2021), “Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of The Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&c lear_cache=Y
Mearsheimer J. (2022), Playing With Fire in Ukraine The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation, retrieved online: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine, accessed on 01-12-2022
Sorcha Bradley, (2022), “What Does Vladimir Putin Want from Ukraine?” The Week, https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/955527/whatdoes-vladimir-putin-want-ukraine;
Taras Kuzio, (2022), “Putin’s Obsession with Ukraine as a ‘Russian Land,’” E-International Relations, https://www.eir.info/2022/01/17/opinion-putins-obsession-with-ukraine-asa-russian-land/.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2022). Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2022. April 28. Available online: https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2022-04-28/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2022 (accessed on 24 Nov, 2022).
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Insights of Pakistan, Iran and the Caucasus Studies
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.